How to avoid doing dumb things

How to avoid doing dumb things
 
Investment blogging isn't interesting when there is deficient undervalued opportunities. Even if I came out with potential ideas to explore, the present valuations are undesirable with insufficient margin of safety. All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. After sitting through 2 bear markets, reviewing investment performance data and coming to a conclusion that my best results are made from placing my bets in market stress conditions, I will strife to trend towards disciplined accumulation. Per portfolio management rules, I need to build up a larger war-chest to match my larger portfolio sizing.





On a completely unrelated and separate note on people doing dumb things




 
Reflecting on the recent COI inquiry regarding the recent deceased servicemen, there is significant furor over the most recent NS related deaths, whereby a Singapore celebrity is killed and MINDEF have to scramble for damage control. The inexplicable thing is that the death is not even under training or stress related conditions, but rather something mundane such as repair work on an artillery gun. I imagine there will be significant ongoing witch-hunts top-down on which personnel is responsible and potential multiple parties will be <henta-taki> over this over-publicized incident.

It is easy to simply convince yourself that you are the better man and will not do the same dumb things when placed in that specific situation. A lot of people on social media and even MINDEF seem to favor taking the moral high ground and seek to blame the people on the ground for complacency and failing to abide by the procedures / rules. Considering the ugly statistic that there is one NS related deaths on average for the past 2 decades (Plus other unreported non-death incidents), it is insanity to keep repeating the same deficient solution over and over again while expecting better / different results.

 The deep seated problems lies not in failure to comply with procedure, but rather
1) being outside your normal environment or changing your routines. 
2) being in the presence of a group. 
3) being in the presence of an expert or if you, yourself, are an expert. 
4) doing any task that requires intense focus. 
5) information overload. 
6) physical or emotional stress, fatigue.

Having been through active National Service and Reservist, I can often see intelligent people often being careless or doing dumb things when placed in aforementioned circumstances. Unfortunately, with my limited intelligence and resources, I am unable to came up with an intelligent solution to solve the problem. It is a sombre reminder to every National serviceman out there to be vigilant, avoid complacency, and always be consign-ant to the risks at hand. Risk management does not apply to just investing, but rather life-and-death situations whereby fellow servicemen could be at stake.

Stupidity is the cost of intelligence operating in a complex environment. 
Stupidity can be as simple as overlooking or dismissing conspicuously crucial information

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