Showing posts with the label Investments

April Fool's Joke

Summary of the week
As the corona infections reached new heights (>1 million infected) and the stock market continue to hit new lows, a real life Circuit breaker was triggered in Singapore market. As enthusiastic speculators continue to long toilet paper and short stocks, the Federal Reserve tries to calm down the markets by printing USD faster than the toilet paper companies. I originally wanted to post this piece on 1st April as an awful April's Fool joke, but there is nothing humorous about the realities surrounding us.
Portfolio decisions  I initiated a high conviction position in Ishs CSI 300 ETF after I observed the recovery on the China PMI. Although a part of me is confident that China will be the first to regain industrial momentum as the factory of the world, a nagging worry is the fact that the Chinese has a history of fudging their numbers and economic data. 
As a know nothing investor whom does not understand China GAAP, and has no comparative advantage in analyzing…

Massacre Scene <殲景>

The week of falling knifes A Technical Analyst and a Fundamental Analyst are chatting about the markets in the kitchen. Accidentally one of them knocks a kitchen knife off the table landing right in the fundamental analyst’s foot! 
The fundamental analyst yells at the technician, asking him why he didn’t catch the knife? “You know Technicians don’t catch falling knives!” , the technician responded. 
He in turn asks the fundamental analyst why he didn’t move his foot out of the way? The Fundamental analyst responds, “ I didn’t think it could go that low”.

Summary of the week The market volatility this week is unprecedented and unnerving to many whom had enjoyed close to a decade of relative peace and tranquility. Circuit breakers were triggered at stock exchanges and the fear and greed index registered fear metrics close to the 2008 GFC era. The stock market is a roller coaster ride indeed. It was all fun and chuckles when it is making its slow ascent up. It is when it start crashing do…

Michael Leong- Your first $1,000,000 Making it in stocks

 Michael Leong- Local Legend
After exhausting significant part of my war chest, I was very fortunate to chance upon the book published by a Local Legend - Dr Michael Leong. It was my second time rereading the book and the experiences he shared still felt as vivid as ever. 
I first heard of Dr Michael Leong on Hyom Hyom blog whereby ML won significant praise as a wise and selfless investor which is willing to teach and share about his journey and the lessons he learnt. Dr Wealth also had a short writeup on him.
The forums are now defunct and I was under the impression that his teachings had been lost. What I did not realize then is that ML also published a book. I rapidly snapped up this secret manual upon sighting his name in the library shelf. His insight into investing in Singapore is profound and sometimes contradictory, rational yet contrarian and well rooted in the context of Singapore Market. ML has a remarkable mind and strong self control, being able to clearly segregate his lo…

Bear Hunting in China

Bear Hunting in China
Following up from my last post, I was interested to allocate my pent up warchest to capitalize on the fear in SG, HK and CN market, brought about from the Corona Virus Epidemic. Although this is not the market crash prophesied by the perpetual doomsayers, a warchest approach did come in handy for blind spots that everyone has been missing out.

A statistical collation through Tencent revealed granular statistics about the nature of virus in CN. With the social backlash from China citizens for the undue censorship in China, I do not think there will be any fraud / misrepresentation in the big data collated from Tencent / China government. The risk of GIGO should be relatively limited.

Caveat Emptor
The below views are my own and anyone reading should conduct their due diligence

Assuming ceteris paribus and the virus don't mutate to different form, the contagion effect of the virus is incredible high, and the fear of infection have probably contributed to the spi…

Bubonic Plague?

The year of the rat was greeted with the onset of an extreme infectious disease. Although the means of transmission are dissimilar to the bubonic plague / Black death of the 14th century, the fear and rumour mongering on social media in China and SG is perhaps equally contagious. 
Seeing red during CNY on the stock market is not exactly an enjoyable experience although I was emotionally prepared for it. I am happy to have stockpiled my war chest to prepare for market corrections like this. Although I do not exactly rejoice on the fact that people are dying and suffering from possible loss of their loved ones, my job as a contrarian investor is to seek out undervalued opportunities in averse market sentiment. 
Short term impact  Healthcare stocks  Raffles medical - solving of overcapacity issue on Chongqing and Shanghai. 
IHH Healthcare, which has eight ParkwayMedical health centres in China

Medtecs, a manufacturer and distributor of medical consumables,

Sanitary equipment  Alcohol wipes - WIP …

Portfolio Review 2019 - Performance Review

Quantitative Measures
Beta = 0.76, VaR = 8.92%,
Expected Shortfall = 17.43%
Overall - Time = 19.99%

Performance Review for 2019

Beating the STI ETF benchmark is not difficult this year. As a market capitalized ETF, STI ETF was a late buyer in the REIT rally, which highlighted the downside of this methodology. Moreover, a lot of retail investors with larger proportion to REITS performed way better than me. My returns were also punished as I averaged down on Silverlake Axis on the recent price correction. I also sold off a percentage of STI ETF to increase my war chest instead of reallocating to US Stocks, resulting in the missing out of the Christmas rally and the year end momentum play.

The S and P 500 trounced the returns of most market participants. I am not certain whether the blind money / DCA via index investors resulted into this phenomenon. There is significantly high PE stocks in the index constituents. Stocks could be simply getting more expensive instead of being supported by …

Hazy September

Battle of the titans in the Trade war

September is a month of hazy outlook. There is temporary ceasefire of the trade war, and the yearly forest fires from Indonesia added some ambience to the hazy atmosphere. After China and US rediscovered the economic damage they have inflicted to their economy, the Fed and the Chinese monetary authority launched another round of stimulus (interest rate cuts) to repair the damage dealt.

As the fearful mood shifted from trade war escalations to negative interest rates destroying the economy, I am staying my course in ignoring prophets of doom and quietly entered another position into Silverlake Axis. SLA evolved from a small entry position in my portfolio to one of the largest position throughout the years and I will be seeking peer analysis / feedback on the validity of the thesis.

After discussion of AIT with my community of investors, they are of the opinion that India might be experiencing economic slowdowns and tail risks at the end of their ec…