Hazy September

Image result for hazy singapore ultraman
Battle of the titans in the Trade war

September is a month of hazy outlook. There is temporary ceasefire of the trade war, and the yearly forest fires from Indonesia added some ambience to the hazy atmosphere. After China and US rediscovered the economic damage they have inflicted to their economy, the Fed and the Chinese monetary authority launched another round of stimulus (interest rate cuts) to repair the damage dealt.

As the fearful mood shifted from trade war escalations to negative interest rates destroying the economy, I am staying my course in ignoring prophets of doom and quietly entered another position into Silverlake Axis. SLA evolved from a small entry position in my portfolio to one of the largest position throughout the years and I will be seeking peer analysis / feedback on the validity of the thesis.

After discussion of AIT with my community of investors, they are of the opinion that India might be experiencing economic slowdowns and tail risks at the end of their economic cycle. Although I am generally bullish on the bottom up prospects of the counter, my research in the macroeconomic outlook in India is limited. In view of the run up in price and the significant composition in my portfolio, I will stay in the sidelines for now.

The Hong Kong Space was dragging longer than expected. It is interesting to see how China are willing to stick to their principles of non overt interference in HK. It is possible that after the Golden week in China and the rousing of the nationalist spirit, there might be more active actions taken by the Chinese as the HK riots seem to not be quelling itself anytime soon. I am expecting increasing volatility as the year drags to an end and managed funds start selling off their underperforming stocks for tax loss harvesting purposes.

SGX is performing way above expectations. I severely underestimated the outlook of the derivatives market as SGX derivative segment started to significantly outpace the poor volume in equity clearing and IPO segment. Despite the closure of some revenue functions as SGX, the record earnings posted are impressive and I might want to dig deeper on the economics of the derivatives market to see if another position is warranted.

In the current mood of low interest rate and potential economic recovery, I will be taking a step back from active allocation to build up my war-chest and try to go for the SLA AGM if time permits. I may be doing subsequent posts of CFA series for my own learning purposes, and hope that fellow visitors may benefit from it without stressing out over the convoluted CFA language. Until then, I will be at the sidelines looking out for undervalued opportunities!


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