Poems - Fundamental Screening and Cyclical Investing
18Mar17 Utilising the POEMS fundamental Analysis Function on my laptop, I managed to churn out a list of stocks that has reasonably good fundamentals. My strategy is to go down the list and pick companies that are good. I will spend some time and effort to Refine my Valuation spreadsheet and make it more intuitive to use, and automate more of the manual processes via VBA and macros. The first way to screen is by sectorial screening and trade along the business cycle. I can research on specific industries and make it within my circle of competence. 1) Full Recession - This is not a good time for businesses or the unemployed. GDP has been retracting, quarter-over-quarter; interest rates are falling; consumer expectations have bottomed; and the yield curve is normal . Beginning - Focus on Cyclicals and transport, Middle - Technology(NOW) End - Industrials (NOW) 2) Early Recovery - This is when things start to pick up. Consumer expectations are rising; industrial production is ...