Caveat Emptor

I am currently reviewing Silver-lake axis Annual report. 1) Reading through the annual report made me feel the depth of my ignorance. I may have used the OCBC bank's SIBS system in the past and I can hardly differentiate it from the other 2 banks I have worked in. I don't feel that the SIBS banking systems is superior / inferior to the home-made systems used by the 2 MNC banks. This may mean either SIBS is overhyped, or SIBS is so good to the point that they can compete with the best banking systems! But I admit that creation of a mainframe system is a very expensive and complex process requiring great minds to make it work intuitively for users as well as to fit the complexity of all the banking processes. Silver Lake Axis has significant economic moats. I read the annual report once and I barely understood it. 2) Operating from my circle of competence, the direction of the banking sector is to move towards a system integrated with blockchain / STP / Internet ...

Reflections after One and a half years of investing. 1) I need to refine the spreadsheet I have been using to value my shares. The discount rate is flawed in a way due to the STI bring negative returns in the previous year. I need to find a work-about (maybe use risk free rate of 10 year SGS bonds to give a new discount rate) 2) I need to refine my valuation models i) Price Earnings model (from historical 5 years to forecasted 5 year model) Deriving from peter lynch and John Templeton, I am following the traditional Benjamin Graham model whereby I only use historical numbers that do not lie. I however use the historical quantitative track record to support the qualitative outlook. My methods has its merits from the value standpoint but not growth orientated. For actual valuation of growth stocks, I need to improve on my intrinsic valuation of the stock 5 year onward. Granted, predicting 5 years into the future is a very foggy business and even the best get it wrong, but it is...

John Templeton 1) User of market timing and undiscovered markets to buy Cheap Stocks. Global contrarian and focus on emerging markets (Japan) with good work ethic. Buy stocks for less than what they are worth, hold them as long as it takes for market to appreciate how undervalued they are. Know how to go analysis in depth and go against conventional wisdom. 2) Importance of building initial reputation of competence and branching out to advertise your latent skills. Although you are competent, if you don't advertise it sufficiently, you will not be profiting off your skills. 3) Templeton fund despite impressive long term returns, is nonetheless vulnerable to bear markets. In early to mid 1970s, value of fund fell in 3 out of 5 years. It can decrease by 9.9% in 1973 and further 12.1% in 1974. Loss is less severe due to defensive nature of rigorous value orientated approach in portfolio. Fluctuation of share price is approximately square root of price. A 4 dollar stock (st electro...

Yeo hiap seng 1) Sitting on a one off huge pile of cash of 138.35 million from the disposal of super shares. Used partially to pay for disposal of subsidiary (-1.21million) and decrease in (-3.27 million) from fnb division  2) Decrease in q1 revenue due to dispute with Cambodia distributior. Sales will be decreased in the short run  3) Challenging business risks include forex rate, weak market condition, delay shipment to markets, water provision  4) Decline in gross profit due to lower revenue and higher cost of finished goods (temporary, not yet delivered goods).  5) Company is able to successful decrease advertising, distribution and administrative experiences to soften the decrease in profit.  6) Loss of pepsico exclusive bottling agreement.  7) Preliminary analysis on its balance sheet revealed after 2014 , there is a sharp fall in profitability and revenue that decline has been persistent since then and the ...

General Sentiment After attending the investment seminar talk held at suntec city on 06/08/17, my general impression is that there has been an active interest between the brokers in offering competitive rates for their brokerage services. There are a lot of proficient speakers there, ranging from the bond experts at fundsupermart, general brokerage providers, investing-note (Facebook for investors) as well the dubious schemes promoting quick to rich schemes with 99% of beating the market. I really enjoy those talks but that will be a post for another day.  The general trend of brokerages now (borrowing ideas of SCB low cost model) is to create a savings account at their brokerage so that they will have a much lower credit risk if client have insufficient funds to make the trade. That way, they can reduce default risk, trade timing issues, turnabout trades, buy in issues and also bolster the amount of funds accessible to them. SCB took one step further by not even setting up booth...

Looking at the 5 year chart of SGX, there might be evidence of yearly seasonal trends in the stock price of the Singapore Exchange. It might be worth it to start stocking up cash in anticipation of the market correction there might be occurring around October to December period.    *edit* dividend policy is around the period from 27oct to 03 Oct explaining the drop in share price. Not sure if dividend payout is considered a seasonal factor but oh well.  SGX is a company with 0 debt and very good cash flow. I am bullish about its measures to improve profitability and some fundamental changes in an attempt to boost trading volume. Nonetheless, a quantitative analysis on its figures is necessary prior to any purchase position.

I took a day off work today to consolidate some of my investment portfolio matters. I went to the Suntec investment seminar on Sunday to listen to some seminars regarding portfolio building and bond investing, and consolidate the findings on Monday.  Although I confess I am not into bond investment at the moment, with interest rates expected to rise all the way until next year, it is a rare chance to listen to professionals speak regarding this matter. Stocks may be overvalued as the economy picks up and I may have to research on picking bonds to supplement my portfolio. I will be also meeting my Philips capital adviser to consult him on portfolio matters as well as to meet up with my ex colleagues for lunch  Taking a sombre view at my active picking results, I gather that value investing is bound to be vastly underperforming in the short run. I bought Hyflux, raffles medical, I trust and singtel within the span of this year, and upon getting notice of their 52 week l...