Caveat Emptor

http://m.scmp.com/business/article/1975392/noble-groups-amazing-story-how-soar-then-fall-back-earth?amp=1 https://www.asia.finance/why-noble-group-may-never-recover-from-its-crisis https://www.asia.finance/why-noble-group-may-never-recover-from-its-crisis https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1GZ1UF?espv=1 1) Noble, like Enron, had a great story to tell. True, no one outside the company was exactly sure how it made money but the proof seemed to be in the pudding as its share price rose and rose again. The heady rise in its market capitalisation was frequently punctuated with news of acquisitions and fabulous deals; only wimps questioned how they were leveraged. 2)  they are all suffering from acute amnesia. Some, however, claim not to have forgotten but are bitterly accusing Elman and his colleagues of misleading them. Others, with the benefit of hindsight, are busy claiming a degree of foresight that they remarkably kept under wraps. 3)It reco...

Silver Lake axis - a silver lining in sight? I went to the Silver Lake axis EGM on 01 Mar 2018 to vote for the EGM regarding the acquisition of 3 subsidiaries. To be frank, I half expected a google like buzz and more hip and coming investors and tech geek, being a fintech company and all. In actuality, most of them look like senior citizens at retirement age, some hardcore retail numbers savvy investors, and a few fund managers / securities analyst whom mainly kept silent throughout the egm.  In fact, I think I am the youngest person on the room apart from the ushers. I believe I saw Rusmin Ang, the guy whom wrote articles about agm/egm in his website the fifth person, taking down notes there too. Now without further adieu, I will like to detail on the proceedings of the egm proper.  The first part of the EGM has the main board of directors. They are holding a q and a with shareholders about the acquisitions. The questions are numerous and I took down some of the mo...

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/perpetual-securities-wont-be-called-until-tuaspring-is-divested-hyflux HYFLUX will not redeem its retail perpetual securities until the divestment of Tuaspring is completed, it said on Tuesday. A S$400 million tranche of Hyflux's perps reach their first call date on April 25. Hyflux has the right but not the obligation to redeem its perps at the first call date. The coupon yield on these perps will step up from 6 per cent to 8 per cent per annum until they are redeemed. Hyflux aimed to partially divest up to 70 per cent of Tuaspring water desalination and power plant last year, but has not. Tuaspring is held on its books at a value of S$1.3 billion. Since October 2016, Hyflux has also been trying to sell the Tianjin Dagang desalination plant in China, which had a book value of S$150 million. Ms Lum said that she is still looking for a buyer, although the asset has been brought back into Hyflux's balance sheet as it no long...

Silver Lake axis EGM (1)   THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF: (A)   70% OF THE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF SILVERLAKE DIGITAL ECONOMY SDN BHD,SILVERLAKE DIGITALE SDN BHD AND SILVERLAKE ONE PARADIGM SDNBHD (COLLECTIVELY, THE “TARGET ENTITIES”), HELD BY SILVERLAKE INVESTMENT LTD (“SIL”), PURSUANT TO THE ACQUISITION OF THE ENTIRE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF SIL (“SIL SHARES”), AS AN INTERESTED PERSON TRANSACTION; AND (B)   THE BALANCE 30% OF THE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF EACH OF THE TARGET ENTITIES, FROM THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDER (S) OF EACH TARGET E NTITY (COLLECTIVELY, THE “MINORITY SELLERS”),  WHICH,  TOGETHER  WITH  THE ACQUISITION OF  THE  SIL SHARES, CONSTITUTES A POTENTIAL MAJOR ACQUISITION, (COLLECTIVELY, THE “PROPOSED SHARE ACQUISITION”); (2)   THE PROPOSED EXECUTION OF (A) THE SYMMETRY LICENCE AND (B ) THE TRANSITIONAL SERVICES AGREEMENT (COLLECTIVELY, THE “PROPOSED ANCILLARY AGR...

Ocbc analysis While others are chasing their love in Valentine's Day, I am chasing the stock OCBC. Despite divesting it back at Nov 2016 after it reaches my calculated fair value, I have kept it in my watch list and monitoring it's news. Unlike the scenario whereby you are chasing an old flame, this is for rational reasons rather than sentimental ones. 2018 14 Feb latest report Improving fundamentals Unknown performance of wealth management => improved aum Increased performance across group Strong financial position Continual Share buyback throughout 2017, but subsequent issuance of preference shares to shore up balance sheet Increased dividend per share Improved margins Improved revenue Improved margin of safety with the recent correction Caveat Low free cash flow. Ocbc is literally running low on cash for other activities I bought at 12.51 2 lots because I am dirt poor and I considered this as an average conviction position size. I will average down if given...

Sources http://sillyinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/10/random-thoughts-some-uses-of-mental.html https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/fewer-marriages-more-divorces-in-2016-singstat-9040550 http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2016ar/2016ar.pdf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriage_vows https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_control https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion Chasing the dream Dream girl vs dream stock Humans are programmed with genetic shortcuts that set them up for success in the dating market, but failure in the financial markets. Behavioural bias. 1) Confirmation bias - You believe in only information that supports your view and ignore the others Chasing a girl vs chasing a stock. Women can be very complicated. As a single guy I get a lot of relationship advice. When she say no you think she say yes. Perseverance is the key to success. When the fundamentals ...

On hindsight, it is always obvious. Everyone is commenting about US stock market reaching new heights for the rest of last year. This year, I also see many investment bloggers commenting about misreading the market and missed out on another bull run. And now, the major correction finally arrived. I must admit I always had a small warchest to capitalise on dips in the market. I always stick to my low PE PEG and good fundamentals methodology. I didn't have a stellar record last year but I persisted in always stay sufficiently vested in the market until there are visible warning signs. Well, the flash flood finally occurred at an unexpected timing. I wanted to hoard more cash but as a salaried worker, this is hardly feasible. I have been eyeing the bollinger bands and VIX index as a gauge of irrational market sentiment and to be frank I am not sure how long this window will open.  Weeks, months or years? Now with every Tom dick and harry trying to come out with plausible reasons to...