Caveat Emptor

Double TwoBaggers As the HK/CN, US and SG markets continue their path to recovery, I have passed the hurdle of scoring my first 2baggers. These stocks are initially chosen based on high quality business at a margin of safety rather than quantitatively cheap stocks, and the revenue / profit growth is accompanied by multiples expansion leading to such a result. Fortunately, these stocks are among the larger positions in my portfolio and contributed significantly to my net worth.  I do not think my results are exceptional given the heightened market sentiment and valuation among different asset classes. Traders / Investors in SPACS / cryptos and IPO stocks probably get their first multibagger in hours / days instead of years. In fact, there are widespread concerns about bubble-like valuations among investors / traders I greatly respect, whom are more experienced in the markets than me. However, the market can stay irrational indefinitely and I believe my attempts to time the market wi...

  Quantitative measures Beta = 0.86, VaR = 10.81%, Expected Shortfall = 17.34% Overall - Time = 28.89%, Xirr = 6.43% End of year portfolio Beating the STI ETF benchmark is not difficult this year. The STI ETF consist of old economy stocks that are most affected by Covid 19, which are greatly affected by the slowdown in global trade flows,  global tourism as well as lock-downs in Singapore as well as other countries. Although market commentators like to extrapolate from the US market and preach about the <newfound truth> that <the stock market is not the economy>, I noted that this narrative does not really scale well to other stock markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and other countries.   As I do not base my portfolio decisions on macroeconomic forecasts, market sentiment, or forward-looking / nearsighted / farsighted market narratives, my best interpretation of the situation is that the US stock market simply voted to be optimistic at this mom...

  **Disclosure : This author currently has no stake in the mentioned companies (Robin Hood, Virtu Financial, UP Fintech Holdings, Interactive Brokers) as of this time. This is merely an analytical piece and the author may or may not initiate stakes in the near future. ** Thoughts about Discount brokers and the market impact Payment for order flow are a recent disrupt-or to the business models of the brokerage space in the United States and Singapore. In the United States, new entrants like Webull and Robin hood led to huge reductions in the trading commissions of traditional broker-dealers such as Charles Schwab, Merrill Lynch, TDA etc. There are also major consolidations and mergers between the retail brokerages as they seek to consolidate operations to achieve economics of scale and cost savings, as they fend against the new entrants .  This leading indicator is a worrying sign on the trading and brokerage industry in Singapore. Despite recording record revenue due to the ...