Am I a good investor?
Peter lynch once state that there is no point in doing market timing. If a company is good it will continue to grow. Small Amount of over valuation should not matter in the long run for growth stocks. This is in contrast of
Benjamin Graham focus on margin of safety. Focus on value investing.Modern fundamental school of thought is to choose good growth / value companies with a long term outlook, and use technical analysis to price entry and exit points.
So far, my portfolio has made overall gains throughout with only 2 positions resulting in losses. Granted it is a small portfolio (diversification through deep analysis and market exposure and risks), the plus is successful in overwhelming the minus.
Still, I admit I really suck at the market timing portion via technical analysis. I initially buy stocks at certain level above resistance lines. The thing about technical analysis is it is very short term based (short term is hours, long term is less than a month). At this point of time, the resistance lines holds. But once it is breached, it goes all the way through fueled by momentum / trend traders.
My recent purchase in RMG, I tried a different approach. I deliberately time it below the resistance line, as its pe/ p/bv is overvalued but its 52 week low and relative valuation with Industrial peers seems that it is undervalued. To achieve margin of safety I timed it below the first level of resistance line. I was lucky there is a good till date function in Singapore market and my trade went through after 2 weeks. However, its price continues to fall downwards and now fluctuates at its second resistance line (another line with very small time horizon) . In summary I can see the inconstistency of technical analysis and my attempts at market timing is kind of unsuccessful.
Missed gainers
Chews - not sure about challenging and uncompetitive nature of Singapore as a egg producer. Still it's profit margin is impressive and growth prospects is there. I missed the tide at January due to non investment related commitments. I am waiting for the q2 earnings to declare a dismal fall in Profit and the market to price it in before deciding further
St engineering - I strongly favour St electronics prospects as it has unfair bias in winning contracts from the government. It's numerous contracts awarded from the government are too numerous and worthy of an entire blog post. Every car park gantry and even erp is a ATM for the government and St. The reason I didn't buy in is I am not an expert in its other businesses.
Top glove - pe ratio, low debt. Highly disposable nature of rubber gloves resulting in consistent demand for it in industrial / healthcare sectors. I am not an expert in gloves so I didn't buy in.
Monitoring
Comfort - it's taxi business is a challenging environment to navigate. It's other lines of business, I might find time to look into it. It is pretty low right now, a bargain based on historical figures, but a bad stock based on deteriorating fundamentals.
Yeo hiap seng - cheap now. Not sure why. It has a steep drop-off from its previous highs
Faeser and neave - partnership with McDonald's as a distribution network to improve its sales channel of product 100 plus. Worth investigating
Ascendas India trust - too early to buy in further. Will wait for end of year financial statements to decide further
Dairy farm - fmcg commodity business with low profit margin (bad) but strong distribution networks, economies of scale and scope, and focus on automation to improve efficiency and reduce manpower overheads. Worth investigating.
Singapore exchange - it was never really expensive or cheap. There is high fluctuations. Might be worth doing a dca on it. Has investment moats as a monopoly and regulatory body, but suffers from competition from exciting overseas stock exchange and custodian services from individual financial institutions
Hyflux - depressing news of q2 losses persists. Have to wait for its news of disposal of toxic tuaspring asset before it can regain profitability. Entry into the energy market is costing Hyflux due to economic conditions (low revenue high expense) and motherhood statements on straits times about strategic importance of tuaspring is not going to save Olivia lun unless th steps in. In the long run high debt ratio will still erode it's profits. Generally there is too much uncertainty to do an average down and I will hold until divestment is complete.
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